Hot Temps Lead to Strong Sales (DDN, July 2018)

BY Brian Loftus
7/17/2018 - HVAC Market Intelligence

HARDI Market Research & Benchmarking Analyst Brian Loftus discusses cooling season TRENDS sales performance of HARDI distributors.



The average HARDI distributor experienced nearly 20% sales growth this May versus May of 2017. Growth in the 20’s is extraordinary, but what really made the performance exceptional was that sales in May of 2017 were up 19.4%. Single digit sales growth would have been acceptable against such a busy prior year. The picture above from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration illustrates the extreme heat that inspired the recent sales surge. The Central and Great Lakes region experienced approximately 150% more population-weighted Cooling Degree Days than normal, while the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic experienced about 50% more population-weighted Cooling Degree Days than normal.

The AHRI shipment report for May was not nearly as exciting. AC shipments, on an annual basis, have increased by 3.1% to 5.3 million units. The 3.3 million unit furnace market has been a solid and steady performer with growth in the 7.5% range since the fall. The Heat Pump market is a bit smaller at 2.75 million units, but growth has 8%-plus since the fall.

The map below is our first indicator of sales growth in June. The net effect is 40% more population-weighted Cooling Degree Days than normal in the central region, and 25% more than normal in the Great lakes and Southwest regions. Warm temps and a healthy economy against modest sales last June should produce good sales growth and later a good shipment report.



This is the first month that CoMetrics will be managing our TRENDS monthly distributor sales survey. CoMetrics has done such a wonderful job with our annual benchmarking program, DPD, that we wanted to build on that experience to provide more robust insights to members each month. We have ideas for additional insights but decided to start slow by continuing the current data presentation. Participating members learn how their sales compare to their region for the month and last twelve months, receive access to a recorded analysis presentation with additional insight into the performance and implications, and also receive the expanded quarterly HARDInomics economic forecast analysis reports. TRENDS is our most popular member benefit. It is available to distributors at no charge in exchange for your participation.

Please let me know if you still need access to the June sales survey. You need to complete the sales survey to receive the first edition of HARDInomics later this month.

This article was published in the July 2018 edition of HARDI’s Data Driven Newsletter.